Ososayensi, osomabhizinisi kanye nama-CEO ezinkampani ezinkulu bagunyaza kangakanani ukuthuthuka okusheshayo kobuchwepheshe, balibona kanjani ikusasa lethu futhi bahlobana kanjani nobumfihlo bedatha yabo?
ama-techno-optimists
- Ray Kurzweil, Google CTO, futurist
“I-Artificial intelligence akukona ukuhlasela okungaziwa okuvela ku-Mars, kuwumphumela wobuhlakani bomuntu. Ngikholelwa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe buzogcina buhlanganiswe emizimbeni nasebuchosheni bethu futhi buzokwazi ukusiza impilo yethu.
Isibonelo, sizoxhuma i-neocortex yethu efwini, sizenze sihlakaniphe futhi sidale izinhlobo ezintsha zolwazi ebesingazazi ngaphambili. Lona umbono wami wekusasa, isimo sethu sokuthuthuka ngo-2030.
Senza imishini ihlakaniphe futhi isisiza ukuthi sikhulise amakhono ethu. Akukho lutho oluqinile mayelana nokuhlanganiswa kwesintu nobuhlakani bokwenziwa: kuyenzeka njengamanje. Namuhla abukho ubuhlakani bokwenziwa olulodwa emhlabeni, kodwa kukhona cishe amafoni ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezi-3 nawo angama-artificial intelligence” [1].
- Peter Diamandis, isikhulu esiphezulu seZero Gravity Corporation
“Bonke ubuchwepheshe obunamandla esike sabenza busetshenziselwa okuhle nokubi. Kodwa bheka idatha esikhathini eside: zingakanani izindleko zokukhiqiza ukudla ngomuntu ngamunye, zingakanani isikhathi sokuphila senyukile.
Angisho ukuthi ngeke kube nezinkinga ngokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe obusha, kodwa, ngokuvamile, benza umhlaba ube yindawo engcono. Kimina, kumayelana nokwenza ngcono izimpilo zezigidigidi zabantu abasesimeni esinzima sempilo, abasonqenqemeni lokusinda.
Ngo-2030, ubunikazi bezimoto buzobe bungasekho. Uzoguqula igaraji lakho libe yigumbi lokulala eliyisipele kanye nendlela yakho yokungena ibe ingadi yamarose. Ngemuva kokudla kwasekuseni ekuseni, uzohamba uye emnyango wangaphambili wendlu yakho: ubuhlakani bokwenziwa buzokwazi isimiso sakho, bheka ukuthi uhamba kanjani, futhi ulungise imoto kagesi ezimele. Njengoba ungalalanga ngokwanele izolo ebusuku, uzokwandlalwa umbhede esihlalweni esingemuva – ukuze ukwazi ukuqeda ukuntula ubuthongo lapho uya emsebenzini.
- Michio Kaku, American theory physicist, popularizer of science kanye futurist
“Izinzuzo emphakathini ngokusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe zizohlala zidlula izinsongo. Nginesiqiniseko sokuthi ukuguqulwa kwedijithali kuzosiza ekuqedeni ukuphikisana konxiwankulu besimanje, ukubhekana nokungasebenzi kahle kwabo, kususe ubukhona emnothweni wabaxhumanisi abangangezi noma yiliphi inani langempela ezinhlelweni zebhizinisi noma ochungechungeni phakathi komkhiqizi nomthengi.
Ngosizo lobuchwepheshe bedijithali, abantu, ngomqondo othile, bazokwazi ukuzuza ukungafi. Kuzokwazi, ukusho, ukuqoqa konke esikwaziyo mayelana nomuntu oshonile odumile, futhi ngokusekelwe kulolu lwazi enze ubunikazi bakhe bedijithali, engezelele ngesithombe esingokoqobo se-holographic. Kuzoba lula nakakhulu ukwenza ubunikazi bedijithali bomuntu ophilayo ngokufunda ulwazi oluvela ebuchosheni bakhe nokudala okuphindwe kabili okubonakalayo” [3].
- U-Elon Musk, usomabhizinisi, umsunguli weTesla ne-SpaceX
“Nginentshisekelo ezintweni ezishintsha umhlaba noma ezithinta ikusasa, kanye nobuchwepheshe obusha obumangalisayo obubonayo futhi obuzibuzayo: “Hawu, kwenzeke kanjani lokhu? Kungenzeka kanjani lokhu? [ezine].
- UJeff Bezos, umsunguli kanye ne-CEO ye-Amazon
“Uma kukhulunywa ngesikhala, ngisebenzisa izinsiza zami ukusiza isizukulwane esilandelayo sabantu ukuthi siphumelele kwezamabhizinisi kule ndawo. Ngicabanga ukuthi kungenzeka futhi ngikholwa ukuthi ngiyakwazi ukuyidala le ngqalasizinda. Ngifuna izinkulungwane zosomabhizinisi zikwazi ukwenza izinto ezimangalisayo emkhathini ngokunciphisa kakhulu izindleko zokufinyelela ngaphandle koMhlaba.
“Izinto ezintathu ezibaluleke kakhulu ekuthengiseni indawo, indawo, indawo. Izinto ezintathu ezibaluleke kakhulu ebhizinisini lethu labathengi ubuchwepheshe, ubuchwepheshe nobuchwepheshe.
- UMikhail Kokorich, umsunguli kanye ne-CEO ye-Momentus Space
“Impela ngizibona ngiyi-techno-optimist. Ngokubona kwami, ubuchwepheshe buqhubekela phambili ekuthuthukiseni impilo yomuntu kanye nesimiso senhlalo phakathi nesikhathi eside, naphezu kwezinkinga ezihlobene nobumfihlo kanye nokulimala okungase kube khona - isibonelo, uma sikhuluma ngokuqothulwa kohlanga lwama-Uyghurs e-China.
Ubuchwepheshe buthatha indawo enkulu empilweni yami, ngoba empeleni uhlala ku-inthanethi, emhlabeni obonakalayo. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi uyivikela kanjani idatha yakho yomuntu siqu, isesidlangalaleni futhi ayikwazi ukufihlwa ngokuphelele.
- URuslan Fazliyev, umsunguli we-e-commerce platform ECWID kanye ne-X-Cart
“Wonke umlando wesintu umlando we-techno-optimism. Iqiniso lokuthi ngisathathwa njengomuntu osemusha oneminyaka engama-40 kungenzeka ngenxa yobuchwepheshe. Indlela esixhumana ngayo manje iphinde ibe umphumela wobuchwepheshe. Namuhla singathola noma yimuphi umkhiqizo ngosuku olulodwa, ngaphandle kokushiya ikhaya - asizange silokothe sikuphuphe lokhu ngaphambili, kodwa manje ubuchwepheshe buyasebenza futhi buthuthuka nsuku zonke, zonga insiza yethu yesikhathi futhi zinikeza ukukhetha okungakaze kubonwe ngaphambili.
Idatha yomuntu siqu ibalulekile, futhi kunjalo, ngivumelana nokuyivikela ngangokunokwenzeka. Kodwa ukusebenza kahle nesivinini kubaluleke kakhulu kunokuvikela okuyinkohliso kwedatha yomuntu siqu, esengozini noma kunjalo. Uma ngikwazi ukusheshisa inqubo ethile, ngabelana ngolwazi lwami siqu ngaphandle kwezinkinga. Izinkampani ezifana ne-Big Four GAFA (i-Google, i-Amazon, i-Facebook, i-Apple) ngicabanga ukuthi ungayethemba ngedatha yakho.
Ngiphambene nemithetho yesimanje yokuvikela idatha. Imfuneko yemvume engunaphakade yokudluliselwa kwabo yenza umsebenzisi achithe amahora amaningi empilo yakhe echofoza izivumelwano zamakhukhi futhi esebenzisa idatha yomuntu siqu. Lokhu kunciphisa ukuhamba komsebenzi, kodwa empeleni akusizi nganoma iyiphi indlela futhi cishe akunakwenzeka ukuvikela ngempela ekuvuzeni kwabo. Ukungaboni izingxoxo zokugunyaza kuyathuthukiswa. Izindlela ezinjalo zokuvikela idatha yomuntu siqu azifundile futhi azinamsebenzi, ziphazamisa kuphela umsebenzi wabasebenzisi ku-inthanethi. Sidinga okuzenzakalelayo okujwayelekile okuhle umsebenzisi angakunikeza kuwo wonke amasayithi futhi angavumela okuhlukile kuphela.
- Elena Behtina, CEO of Delimobil
“Yebo, ngiyi-techno-optimist. Ngikholelwa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe nedijithali kwenza izimpilo zethu zibe lula kakhulu, zikhulise ukusebenza kahle kwazo. Uma ngikhuluma iqiniso, angiziboni izinsongo esikhathini esizayo lapho imishini izothatha umhlaba wonke. Ngikholwa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe buyithuba elikhulu kithina. Ngokubona kwami, ikusasa ngele-neural networks, idatha enkulu, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye ne-inthanethi yezinto.
Ngilungele ukwabelana ngedatha yami okungeyona eyomuntu siqu ukuze ngithole izinsizakalo ezihamba phambili futhi ngijabulele ukusetshenziswa kwazo. Kuningi okuhle kubuchwepheshe besimanje kunezingozi. Bakuvumela ukuthi uhlanganise inqwaba yezinsizakalo nemikhiqizo ehambisana nezidingo zomuntu ngamunye, umgcinele isikhathi esiningi.”
Ama-Technorealists kanye nama-technopessimists
- Francis, uPapa
“I-inthanethi ingasetshenziselwa ukwakha umphakathi onempilo nohlanganyelayo. Inkundla yezokuxhumana ingaba nomthelela enhlalakahleni yomphakathi, kodwa futhi ingaholela ekuhlukanisekeni nasekuhlukaniseni abantu ngabanye namaqembu. Okusho ukuthi, ukuxhumana kwesimanje kuyisipho esivela kuNkulunkulu, esihlanganisa umthwalo omkhulu” [7].
“Uma intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe ingase ibe isitha senzuzo evamile, kungaholela ekuhlehleni—ohlotsheni lobuqaba olulawulwa amandla anamandla. Ubuhle obujwayelekile abunakuhlukaniswa nobuhle bomuntu ngamunye” [8].
- U-Yuval Noah Harari, umbhali wekusasa
“Ama-automation maduze azocekela phansi izigidi zemisebenzi. Yebo, kuzothatha indawo yemisebenzi emisha, kodwa akukaziwa ukuthi abantu bazokwazi yini ukusheshe bawazi amakhono adingekayo.”
“Angizami ukumisa ukuqhubeka kwezobuchwepheshe. Kunalokho, ngizama ukugijima ngokushesha. Uma i-Amazon ikwazi kangcono kunokuba uzazi wena, kusho ukuthi umdlalo usuphelile. ”
“I-Artificial intelligence iyabathusa abantu abaningi ngoba abakholwa ukuthi izoqhubeka nokulalela. Inganekwane yesayensi inquma kakhulu ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi amakhompyutha noma amarobhothi azoqaphela - futhi maduze azozama ukubulala bonke abantu. Eqinisweni, kunesizathu esincane sokukholelwa ukuthi i-AI izothuthukisa ukwazi njengoba ithuthuka. Kufanele siyesabe i-AI ngokuqondile ngoba cishe iyohlala ilalela abantu futhi ingalokothi ihlubuke. Akufani nanoma yiliphi elinye ithuluzi nesikhali; ngokuqinisekile uyovumela izidalwa esezivele zinamandla ukuthi ziqinise amandla azo nakakhulu” [10].
- UNicholas Carr, umbhali waseMelika, umfundisi eNyuvesi yaseCalifornia
"Uma singanakile, ukuzenzekelayo komsebenzi wengqondo, ngokushintsha imvelo nesiqondiso somsebenzi wobuhlakani, ekugcineni kungacekela phansi esinye sezisekelo zesiko ngokwalo - isifiso sethu sokwazi umhlaba.
Lapho ubuchwepheshe obungaqondakali buba bungabonakali, udinga ukuqaphela. Kuleli qophelo, imicabango nezinhloso zakhe zingena ezifisweni nasezenzweni zethu. Asisazi ukuthi isofthiwe iyasisiza yini noma iyasilawula. Siyashayela, kodwa ngeke siqiniseke ukuthi ubani ngempela oshayelayo” [11].
- Sherry Turkle, uprofesa wezengqondo yezenhlalakahle eMassachusetts Institute of Technology
"Manje sesifinyelele "esikhathini serobhothi": leli yiphuzu lapho sidlulisela khona ubudlelwano bomuntu obubalulekile kumarobhothi, ikakhulukazi ukusebenzisana ebuntwaneni nasekugugeni. Sikhathazeka nge-Asperger kanye nendlela esisebenzisana ngayo nabantu bangempela. Ngokubona kwami, abathandi bezobuchwepheshe badlala nje ngomlilo” [12].
“Angimelene nobuchwepheshe, ngingowokuxoxa. Kodwa-ke, manje abaningi bethu "babodwa ndawonye": bahlukaniswe omunye nomunye ubuchwepheshe" [13].
- UDmitry Chuiko, umsunguli we-Whoosh
“Ngingumfundi we-techno-realist. Angiphishekeli ubuchwepheshe obusha uma bungaxazululi inkinga ethile. Kulokhu, kuyathakazelisa ukuzama, kodwa ngiqala ukusebenzisa ubuchwepheshe uma ixazulula inkinga ethile. Isibonelo, yile ndlela engihlole ngayo izibuko ze-Google, kodwa angizange ngizitholele ukusetshenziswa kwazo, futhi angizange ngizisebenzise.
Ngiyaqonda ukuthi ubuchwepheshe bedatha busebenza kanjani, ngakho-ke angizikhathazi ngolwazi lwami siqu. Kunenhlanzeko ethile yedijithali - isethi yemithetho evikelayo: amagama ayimfihlo afanayo ahlukene kumasayithi ahlukene.
- U-Jaron Lanier, i-futurist, i-biometrics kanye nososayensi wokubona idatha
“Indlela yokwenza isiko ledijithali, engiyizondayo, izoguqula ngempela zonke izincwadi emhlabeni zibe yinto eyodwa, njengoba uKevin Kelly ephakamisile. Lokhu kungase kuqale eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo. Okokuqala, i-Google nezinye izinkampani zizoskena izincwadi emafini njengengxenye ye-Manhattan Project ye-cultural digitization.
Uma ukufinyelela ezincwadini ezisefwini kuzoba ngezixhumi ezibonakalayo zabasebenzisi, lapho-ke sizobona incwadi eyodwa kuphela phambi kwethu. Umbhalo uzohlukaniswa ube izingcezu lapho umongo nobuqambi kuzofihlwa khona.
Lokhu sekuvele kwenzeka ngokuqukethwe okuningi esikusebenzisayo: ngokuvamile asazi ukuthi ucezu lwezindaba olucashuniwe luvelaphi, ubani obhale amazwana noma ubani owenze ividiyo. Ukuqhubeka kwalo mkhuba kuzosenza sibukeke njengemibuso yenkolo yenkathi ephakathi noma iNorth Korea, umphakathi onencwadi eyodwa.
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